[MLB-WIRELESS] [Fwd: The Wireless Lan (802.11) smoke-screen]

[Barry Park]

Paul Budde is the telco industry analyst guru.
- Barry

-------- Original Message --------
Subject: The Wireless Lan (802.11) smoke-screen
Date: Tue, 19 Feb 2002 15:00:14 +1100
From: <pbc at budde.com.au>
To: <bpark at theage.fairfax.com.au>



Dear Barry,

Just added company analyses to the profiles of:
?	Virgin  - http://www.budde.com.au/TOC/TOC2274.html
?	WorldCom - http://www.budde.com.au/TOC/TOC1356.html

The Wireless Lan (802.11) smoke-screen
The Minister for Communications has ordered his department to investigate
the potential of the wireless broadband technology, based on the
international IEEE 802.11standard, for regional rural areas in Australia.
This, of course, is a boost for the wireless data industry in Australia
and companies like SkyNetGlobal, quite understandably, are excited by
this. I have always been an advocate of the 802.11 service, as I can see a
real business opportunity for it in the niche market of business travelers
at airports and hotels.

But what the Minister is now proposing is to broaden the market and start
using 802.11 for much larger deployment ? for example, as an alternative
to Telstra?s broadband network. While I would hope that opportunities do
exist for 802.11 broadband services, they have not surfaced as yet
anywhere around the globe.

My assessment of 802.11 is that it is a great technology for its niche
market (business travellers) but is absolutely unsuited to large-scale and
high-density services. All wireless broadband technologies together
including satellite will never capture more than 20%, perhaps 30% of the
total market.

Any investigation should not distract attention from the key broadband
issue ? that is, how to increase the viability of the existing fixed
network that will deliver 80% of all national broadband connection by
2010.

The Minister should concentrate his efforts on this 80%, not on the 20%.
Over the last few weeks he has had Microsoft knocking on his door again
regarding the lack of broadband in Australia, and the ACCC boss, Alan
Fels, recently published a scathing attack in the AFR about the lack of
competition and the gloomy future of the telco industry. He has provided
the Minister with some real substance, which he could use to advance the
prospects for broadband in Australia. Over the last two years the Minister
?s attention has been continually directed towards the complaints and
suggestions on the subject which have emanated from leading companies and
authorities all over the world ? to no avail.

Announcing the 802.11 Inquiry, therefore, is nothing more than a
smoke-screen, to divert attention from Telstra and its broadband network.
He should address the main broadband issues, including digital TV and
datacasting, before giving consideration to the more exotic possibilities
of 802.11.

Paul Budde


See Web Reports:
Australia Wireless LANs (IEEE 802.11) -
http://www.budde.com.au/TOC/TOC2574.html
Australia Wireless Broadband - http://www.budde.com.au/TOC/TOC1870.html
Australia Wireless Broadband Projects -
http://www.budde.com.au/TOC/TOC2299.html
Global Wireless ? Wireless Broadband (overview of the technology) -
http://www.budde.com.au/TOC/TOC1872.html

PS - based on your request we have added a new facility in our search
engine that allow you to search on titles only.

PSS - if you want to have a laugh click here:
http://www.satirewire.com/news/jan02/australia.shtml


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